Monday, October 20, 2008

A New Race in CD 6

I'll be the first to admit that I didn't think Elwyn Tinklenberg had a very good shot at defeating Congresswoman Michele Bachmann this fall. Even though he had raised a million dollars this election year, he had a very significant cash on hand deficit and Bachmann had been targeted by the NRCC to be saved.

Then, Congresswoman Bachmann opened her mouth. Her six minutes of shame last Friday have done more to change the political landscape in the 6th then anything else over the past year.

It's pretty easy to see that Bachmann decided to lay low, dodging Elwyn at numerous forums across the district and spending her time being a media darling. Her obsession with hearing her own voice on television will bring about her downfall.

Before Michele Bachmann appeared on Hardball last week, she had a $1 million cash on hand advantage over Elwyn Tinklenberg, with about 17 days to go.

We're now nearly 2 weeks out and after raising at least $700,000 over the weekend, Tinklenberg has closed the cash on hand advantage of the incumbent Bachmann.

That's just simply incredible, but its more than the money.

With two weeks to go, people are even more energized, people are volunteering and going door to door to make the case against Bachmann.

I've seen the polls. One had Elwyn 15 points back a couple of months ago. A recent Bachmann poll had her up by 11. A recent DCCC poll has Bachmann only up by 4.

This was all before Bachmann started talking again.

Her six minutes of stupidity have erased her cash on hand advantage and will produce another surge in the polls for Tinklenberg.

Thanks Michele, we certainly won't miss you!


Minnesota Central said...

Great assessment.

Perception and timing are everything. I am no fan of Bachmann (having ridiculed her in my blog for her tax proposals to saving the light bulb), but her ego got in front of her. She has enjoyed the national media spotlight from Laura Ingram to FOX and Larry King, finding them to be very friendly … why she would ever go on Hardball is just plain stupid … but that’s Bachmann.
Tink may not the most exciting candidate and he will be a Blue Dog. With the House being controlled by Democrats, there may be some in-fighting, but Minnesota and the country will be better represented.

Minnesotans have seen circumstances change elections in the past. Remember Paul Wellstone being helped by a letter sent out by incumbent Rudy Boschwitz and Norm Coleman being helped by Rick Kahn’s speech at Wellstone’s memorial.

I wonder how much this will affect Coleman. Republicans wanted to throw him under the bus before, and with McCain on the top of the ticket, will they just not show up ? Will people write in Aubrey Immelman to show their displeasure and still vote for Coleman ? Will Barkley benefit from this … or is he destined to be the spoiler ?

dev said...

Tinklenberg has so much baggage, that Bob Anderson is the sane choice.

It surprises me you support Barkley, but not Anderson. MinnCentral is right, Coleman's contest is harder for him. He now has to distance himself from Bush AND Bachmann.

What about John Kline? Has Sarvi made the connection - Bachmann is Kline's protege.

What kind of dance step will Kline have to do now?

BlueMan - You've said little about Sarvi lately. Have you quit on him?