Tinklenberg v. Bachmann

Tinklenberg endorsed on the first ballot.

107.5 to 39.

72.4% on the first ballot, Olson's 26% is pretty disappointing, looks like he was the recipient of a lot of "Minnesota Nice" on the phones.

Larry Schumacher has provided excellent coverage of the convention all day long! The comments on his blog are rather entertaining as well.

It will be interesting to hear Tinklenberg's speech.

It will be even more interesting seeing how the Minnesota GOP and Congresswoman Bachmann react.

Congratulations to Elwyn Tinklenberg. It's time to get to work...

CD 6 live blog (Updated)

Weather has been horrible, although I hear it's much better in the cities. The roads were pretty bad in Wright County, so I decided to watch Charlie Wilson's War and follow Larry Schumacher's live blog of the event.

Sounds like they have the bloggers in the back of the room...tough to get some good You Tubes from there!

Not much going on yet, although I hear the floor is filled with green Tinklenberg shirts.

Update 9: Schumacher reports 147 seated delegates, 89 needed for endorsement. How much longer will it take?

Update 8: Speeches and Q & A are done. First round of ballots to begin.

I'll stick with my first ballot prediction...and that I will not golf today.

Update 7: 30 minute Q & A period. Tinklenberg on marriage equality.

We are beginning to understand how important it is to stand up and protect the rights of all people. Beginning to see that if we allow those to erode for anyone, they start to erode for everyone.

Beginning to understand?

Update 6: No Miles Lord? I wonder what happened there? Tinklenberg's speech apparently rocked the house. His Iraq flop really bugs me...

Update 5: Tarryl Clark and Rebecca Otto speak for Elwyn.

Update 4: Larry has excerpts of Olson's speech up.

Update 3: Looks like the endorsement process has began. Report from the floor that Olson is significantly out organized on the floor.

Update 2: Delegate count at 133, tons of green Tink shirts on the floor. Lots of electronic bling according to a SCSU friend of mine! Olson looks to be going at it "Old School".

Update 1: Olson makes his case to Schumacher, how negative will it get?

Strib on the CD 6 race

And the first paragraph got me going all ready...

In a region where God, guns and other social issues matter, a retired minister with a nuanced stance on abortion vies with an avowed liberal today for the DFL Party endorsement to challenge U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann this fall.

Honestly, no one I talk to is fretting over the social issues. People are concerned about the mortgage crisis, gas prices, health care, the economy and Iraq.

He calls himself "pro-life" on abortion, explaining he favors pregnancy-prevention programs and better health care for children as alternatives to abortion.

But like Olson, Tinklenberg opposes reversing Roe vs. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion.

So, how exactly will that stance resonate across the 6th?

Will Pro-life voters embrace a candidate who is Pro-life but will oppose overturning Roe v. Wade?

Seems to me, voters are already ticked off at elected officials who do nothing...

Olson and Tinklenberg on Almanac

H/T to Political Muse.

Olson did a very good job against Tinklenberg. On more than one occasion, Tinklenberg hemmed and hawed...

Check out the discussion for yourself. Click on 6th District DFL Debate.

Tinklenberg accused Olson of mischaracterising his Iraq position.

From Hometown Source, June 14, 2005.

He would have voted for the Iraq War, Tinklenberg explained, based on the information provided at the time.

But Tinklenberg criticized the Bush Administration for poor planning.

Itís not just a matter of when the United States should pull out of Iraq but what will happen to the people left behind, he explained.

Yet another reason I have a hard time trusting Tinklenberg.

Olson looked and sounded pretty relaxed on Almanac last night. He'll have to give his best political speech today and have a solid floor plan, to defeat Tinklenberg today.

Guess who will introduce Bob Olson on Saturday?

Got a call from a friend this morning...

Former Minnesota Attorney General and US District Court Judge Miles Lord will introduce Olson at the CD 6 Convention.

Two thoughts...

It may make Olson look bad since Judge Lord did come out pretty hard after Tinklenberg's taconite dealings earlier this week.

However, Judge Lord is a powerful figure for working and middle class Minnesotans. He served 5 years as Minnesota Attorney General and was succeeded by Walter Mondale. He was appointed by President Johnson and served nearly 20 years as a US District Court Judge, where he is most famous for going after mining companies dumping taconite tailings in Lake Superior. He is also well known for going after A.H. Robins Company for malpractice in issuing the Dalkon Shield intrauterine device.

At 88 years old, Judge Lord is still fighting for the "little guy". His speech tomorrow will be interesting. I hear the Tinklenberg Campaign is not pleased about this development.

Stay tuned for the live blog tomorrow.

Pioneer Press on the CD 6 race

The Pioneer Press has a piece up this morning about the CD 6 race between Tinklenberg and Olson.

As for Tinklenberg, Olson said, "He knows sand and gravel better than I do.''

Olson said he has contacted most district delegates and contends that half of those support his candidacy. While that's short of the 60 percent support he'll need at the convention in Coon Rapids, he said he's optimistic.

Tinklenberg, meanwhile, avoided specific numbers but said he has strong support among delegates.

Nancy Schumacher, the 6th District DFL chair, said she isn't certain who has the lead but believes the endorsement will be settled fairly quickly.

"I really don't see it going more than two ballots,'' she said.

But Olson knows wind!

Have they changed their minds on whether they will abide by the endorsement again?

Both candidates have said they'll abide by the endorsement, according to Schumacher.

From the AP story yesterday.

Both Tinklenberg and Olson say they are the best candidate to beat Bachmann, and both said they would do so by appealing to independents. Both promised to drop out if the other wins the endorsement, although Tinklenberg said his pledge might not apply if last-minute attacks sway the vote.

I have to admit, I got a nice little chuckle out of this part!

"I understand how to bring tens of thousands of jobs to the 6th District,'' Olson said. "Basically, Elwyn talks about removing Michele Bachmann from office, which I will also do.''

Talk like that prompted Schumacher to note that the campaign has gotten a bit feistier recently.

"Bob Olson is certainly a very passionate person, and some of his supporters are equally passionate,'' she said.

To be fair, Tinklenberg's supporters are equally as passionate.

And the Startribune remains silent...

CD 6 DFL Endorsement Prediction Thread

So, how long will this thing last? How many ballots? Will Tinklenberg pull it off? Will Olson be able to persevere?

My prediction(s)?

Tinklenberg first ballot.

Too cold and wet for Blueman to golf.

AP story on CD 6 race

From the SC Times:

The delegate's minds are on beating Bachmann, which might involve overlooking their own strongly held beliefs on abortion and other social issues. Tinklenberg - who opposes legalized abortion but says he would not work against abortion rights - has the edge in delegates.

District DFL Chairwoman Nancy Schumacher, who based her count on subcaucus results, predicted a relatively quick endorsement. She hedged on who it would be. Olson, meanwhile, claimed that he is leading and said he expects multiple ballots.

Schumacher said Democrats want to focus on roads, jobs and housing - issues she said Bachmann has neglected.

"In many minds, Bachmann is an embarrassment in her voting record, and it doesn't seem she is doing anything - not only for the 6th District but also for the state of Minnesota," Schumacher said.

Will he or will he not abide by the DFL endorsement?

Both Tinklenberg and Olson say they are the best candidate to beat Bachmann, and both said they would do so by appealing to independents. Both promised to drop out if the other wins the endorsement, although Tinklenberg said his pledge might not apply if last-minute attacks sway the vote.

One of many reasons I do not trust Tinklenberg. At some meetings, he has said he would abide by the endorsement. Others, "if the process is fair and honorable". I'm not sure what the "last minute attacks" could be, we've already discussed his lobbying past and taconite on numerous occasions.

Since Tinklenberg might be ready to push the CD 6 race to a primary, Olson ought to threaten to do the same, IMHO.

On the lobbying issue(s):

Several letters circulated among activists have questioned Tinklenberg's work as a transportation consultant. One accused Tinklenberg of working as an unregistered lobbyist. But the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board found last week that Tinklenberg's consulting work on a commuter rail line did not trigger a requirement for him to file paperwork as a lobbyist.

To be clear, the Federal Lobbying issue remains relatively unresolved. The state issues were never a significant cause for concern for me. The Tinklenberg Campaign attempted to obfuscate the issue by comparing it to some of the lobbying of Senator Tarryl Clark, prior to her State Senate election.

The reality is that they were comparing apples and oranges. The Federal Lobbying issues are significantly greater than the issues before the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board. The state issues are more less resolved.

Speaking of campaign finance:

Bachmann, a Republican, has a commanding financial advantage over all comers.

At the end of March, she has more than $1 million in the bank, compared with $102,000 for Tinklenberg and $112,000 for Olson, who has loaned his campaign $182,000 since he started. The Independence Party candidate, John Brockberg, had not reported fundraising.

If we manage to avoid a primary, the money for Olson or Tinklenberg should start rolling in nicely after this weekend.

Why is the Startribune...

...trying to create a race in CD 1 and giving Bachmann a free pass in CD 6?

Yesterday's Strib piece on Tinklenberg was a hit piece. As someone who really doesn't like Tinklenberg, even I can see through that and admit it.

Bob Olson has yet to receive any significant coverage in the Startribune, having jumped from his US Senate race last summer and into the Congressional race.

Elwyn Tinklenberg got hit on taconite yesterday, and a story on his campaign announcement in October.

Even with Brian Davis' lackluster fundraising, the Startribune has seen fit to spend significantly more time on CD 1 candidates than CD 6.

The Davis profile...where doing hospital rounds as a medical student was public service.

The actual endorsement.

Pre-convention fodder.

Mark Meyer getting out.

Dick Day's field trip to the border.

Hotly contested race?

Combined, Walz's four opponents reported having slightly more than $176,000 in campaign contributions on hand as of June 30, compared with the nearly $454,000 Walz reported.

Fundraising against Bachmann in CD 6 has been significantly stronger, yet the only coverage the candidates get are hit pieces. With the convention coming up Saturday, I'd expect some sort of coverage starting tomorrow, but it will pale in comparison to the run up the GOP candidates in CD 1 received before the endorsement.

And who can forget the Bachmann fluff piece?

Look at the fundraising numbers. As incumbents, it's expected that Bachmann and Walz will raise significant sums of money. Both have done that and that alone makes each of the formidable.

The biggest difference however, neglected by the mainstream media, is in constituent outreach.

Tim Walz is holding open forums, listening sessions, and providing outreach to our Veterans. Walz is active across CD 1, walking, talking and listening to his constituents, regardless of where they stand politically. He's being a statesman.

Bachmann? Tele-conferences, no open forums, listening sessions, lackluster constituent outreach. She's AWOL! You can't even record video of Congresswoman Bachmann for fear that Ken Avidor may see it!

Truth be told, it's the strong constituent outreach from Congressman Walz and his staff that make the CD 1 Congressional seat relatively safe for him. He's busting his ass as a Congressman and we recognize that.

Congresswoman Bachmann is merely going through the motions, holding firm to policies that have hurt working and middle class Minnesotans.

Her lack of outreach and the mainstream media's negligence in covering that important aspect of democracy, hurt us all.

Taconite follows Tinklenberg again

The Strib has a piece on it today.

Former federal judge Miles Lord, who 30 years ago famously stopped Reserve Mining Co. from dumping tons of carcinogenic tailings in Lake Superior, distributed a letter at the luncheon and made statements essentially accusing Tinklenberg of helping spread "deadly taconite tailings" in Minnesota and across the country.

Tinklenberg defended the work, saying that the Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) at the University of Minnesota Duluth had tested the rock and found it safe, and that his role has been limited.

"It is not our project," he said. "We've only been asked to explore markets."

Right, he's contracted to market Taconite tailings. The appropriate question would be who payed for the study saying this stuff was safe? If the mining industry or other groups who would profit off the use of taconite tailings paid for the study, it ought to be vigorously questioned.

Tinklenberg, who hopes to win the DFL's endorsement Saturday in Coon Rapids to face Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann, is a former mayor of Blaine and served as Transportation Department commissioner under Gov. Jesse Ventura. After leaving MnDOT, Tinklenberg created a firm specializing in transportation and land-use issues.

No mention of Bob Olson in the story.

Janet O'Connell of Lake Elmo, who also asked questions of Tinklenberg at the luncheon, said that more research must be done on the possible ties between taconite and cancer. She developed an interest in the issue after it came out last year that 35 Iron Range miners died of mesothelioma between 1997 and 2005.

"My concern is, if they use [taconite tailings], what's going to happen to my children and your children," she said.

BTW, Erik Paulsen voted against a U of M study on the cancer epidemic that has swept through Iron Range taconite miners.

A last ditch effort by Olson

The following is a copy of a letter recently mailed from Bob Olson to the roughly 150 delegates to the CD-6 DFL Convention on April 26th. We thought you might like to see what he had to say.

Dear Delegate,

Congratulations on your election to the 6th Congressional District Convention on the 26th. This is an exciting time because we’re pulling together for a common purpose, to retire Michele Bachmann. The district needs it. The country needs it.

Looking to the convention, you want to know what defines me and what defines my opponent. That’s critical. You’re set on choosing the one who represents your concerns.

Despite what you may have been told, giving up core Democratic values does not make us more electable. If we trade away our values in search of victory, we act in fear. And we end up with neither values nor victory.

My name is Bob Olson, a tax attorney, community bank owner and the founder of the American Sustainable Energy Council. I’m ready to make the difference you’re hungry for, to be your representative in Congress.

Why me?

I have experience helping people pay for college, pay for their homes, and secure their futures. I know how to change the tax law to save middle class families being drowned by trickle down economics. I am the only candidate that has a plan to get us out of this mortgage crisis and fix this economy.

By eliminating our dependence on foreign oil, by leveraging sustainable energy technologies, we can create jobs, boost the economy, preserve our national security and save the environment. We need a sizable infusion of loan guarantee funds for sustainable energy – like the REA in the 1930s and 40s – and tax incentives that benefit middle and working class people.

By making the right decisions now, we can end our dependence on oil, gas and coal in 15-to-20 years. We can move faster to a sustainable economy than we moved from the horse and buggy to the automobile a hundred years ago.

But only if we stand on our progressive values.

I’ve never wavered on these issues. I have been against this war in Iraq since day one – the best way to support our troops is to bring them home. I am pro-choice no matter who I am talking to. We do not have to compromise to elect a Democrat in Minnesota’s 6th District. Amy Klobuchar proved that.

Progressive means healthcare for all. It means giving everyone choices.
It means giving the middle class a break from what benefits only the rich. It means human rights for all Americans. That’s where I stand. Stand with me on
April 26th and we can turn this country around.

Bob Olson

Political Muse has some commentary. Bob has always had a solid message. It was his message that sucked me in. A progressive who was going to shake things up a bit. Olson had great difficulty in strongly articulating a powerful progressive message and his campaign suffered for it. Tinklenberg, on the other hand, has not really said much at all in the campaign, at least anything with actual substance.

My take, do with it what you will. I still think it's over, I'm predicting Elwyn first ballot. If it goes more than 4, Ewlyn may be in some trouble.

Tinklenberg responds to Olson delegate email

Once again, Political Muse beats Blueman to the punch.

While I certainly cannot support Mr. Olson any longer given that I have no interest in hunting the white whale, there is still much to be done on the part of Elwyn Tinklenberg in courting progressive voters in the 6th District. From my perspective, there are still many in our community that either feel spurned by this process or by Mr. Tinklenberg himself. Are these feelings justified? Perhaps or perhaps not, but at this point there have to be actions taken by both sides to mend these divisions.

For those feeling spurned I would suggest to you that there is absolutely no way for Mr. Tinklenberg to win without your activism. Whether that activism means footwork or money, he is going to need your support. By taking that first step, you can show that you met half way.

Well said Muse.

It's tough, I'm not sure what I will do. Tinklenberg is doomed without some progressive support in the 6th. However, he has done little to reconcile the inconsistencies on some pretty key progressive ideals. Whether it's choice, marriage equality, or the War in Iraq/Afghanistan, I feel he's been too inconsistent for me to support him.

I still believe the lobbying issue is out there, that has not been reconciled either.

It's a trust issue. He can work to regain that trust with progressives, but a ride on the "straight talk express" is in order.

What the FEC, Bob

Home from work now, been getting pounded with calls about Olson's triumphant announcement that he raised $24,134, subtract 2300 sent back to a contributor, and you get $21,834 raised this past quarter, or about $267 per day. He provided the campaign $63,000 in a loan, a total of $182,000 in loans total.

He reports $112,367 as Cash on Hand.

More impressive, is that the campaign owes $160,500.

Bob has a strong, dedicated staff and enough money in the bank to give Mrs. Bachmann her ticket home. I work with Bob everyday. I have never seen a person more dedicated to a cause. I just imagine what he could accomplish in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The pathetic fundraising shown over the first quarter is actually impressive. Impressive because we know the amount of time and energy placed into this endeavor. Looking at the FEC report, Olson spent in excess of $12,000 to raise $21, 834. Not a good ratio!

An October 1994 Startribune Story on the race between Olson and Ramstad should have provided us with a glimpse of the future, Olsons inability to raise money.

If there's irony plaguing Olson, it's the fact that a campaign with an economic centerpiece is such an economic basket case. The campaign has no money in the bank, and Olson expects to raise no more than $ 30,000 to $ 40,000. By comparison, Ramstad had about $ 600,000 at the end of August.

No money means no advertising, which means no increase in Olson's low name recognition. So he's campaigning the old way, meeting a few voters at a time, passing out handbills. The only real attention that Olson has gotten was the kind no candidate wants: The Politics in Minnesota newsletter reported several weeks ago that the campaign's checks were bouncing. "That check was covered that afternoon," Olson said. "If the news media has done to others what it's done to me, no wonder things are screwed up."

While I know of no bounced checks, but seeing $21,000 in fundraising is pathetic.

The FEC report lists $112, 367 as its cash on hand. A figure that, at least on paper, looks bigger then what Elwyn has. My guess here, is that Olson is playing a shell game. Bump up the number so the FED report looks good, pull the 100K back out after the next quarter begins and start again.

While I have no factual evidence, I can say that the lack of resources for important events led me to that conclusion. Spending all day driving around Wright County to get a lit piece and a 3 page letter to the caucuses, and a few Olson for Senate signs with painters tape over them reflecting the new campaign.

I caught Elwyn's stuff at the tables. Multiple pieces of lit, signage, stickers, etc. He had it going!

If Olson had $100k on hand, why couldn't we get stuff for the caucuses? We barely got stuff together for the conventions!

The bottom line, I do not trust the figure of $112,000 cash on hand. It's an inflated number especially when we consider that Olson and the campaign owes $160,000+

I'd expect better fiscal management from a banker.

To put this into perspective, if Bob were to keep his $24,000 frantic fundraising pace in order to challenge Bachmann...

In order for Bob to hit the $3 million mark, at his frantic $267 a week pace, it would take him 30 years and 9 months to hit the magic $3 million mark.

It's odd.

Olson "leads in delegates" at least according to him, yet significantly trails Elwyn and Bachmann in money.

I'm one to believe that money and delegates go alike.

Olson talks to Larry Schumacher about his lead in delegates.

Now, I saw firsthand how Tinklenberg nearly swept the Senate District 15 DFL convention, winning 11 of the 14 delegates to Olson's 2 (one was uncommitted). I also heard from multiple sources that the Senate District 14 DFL convention went about the same.
I asked Olson about the discrepancy between how he did on this end of the district and how he did elsewhere, he said that SD 15 was his worst district by far, and chalked it up to being "probably more conservative" than the rest of the 6th.

SD 15 conservative? What? Perhaps I'm wrong, but don't they have State Senator Tarryl Clark and State Rep. Larry Haws?

Conservative they are not. He flat out got his tail handed to him. But calling the SD 15 conservative will surely move a few delegates his way.

A primary for Bob?

Olson said he expects the convention to go long, but that his game plan is to walk out of it with an endorsement. He gave a less than 10 percent chance of it going to a primary, and said the process so far had been fair and equitable.

Liberal bloggers Blue Man and Political Muse -- until recently Olson supporters --differ with Olson on where his campaign is, headed into the home stretch.

$21k on a primary battle will not go too far...

With a depleted field campaign, lacking fundraising numbers, and trailing in total delegates, a 10% chance at a primary is absurd.

I honestly cannot ponder a situation where Olson walks into the convention and survives the first round. I know a lot of people dislike Tinklenberg, but Olson has failed to perform, failed to inspire over the past several months...failed to deliver.

The proof is in his FEC report.

Muse on Team Olson

Not sure what Team Olson is ding here as it would make some local party activists to question the sanity behind the numbers. Political Muse has a great post up as well. I'd have started with the chorus from Billy Joel's hit "Sometimes a Fantasy"

It's just a fantasy
It's not the real thing
It's just a fantasy
It's not the real thing
But sometimes a fantasy
Is all you need

Dear CD6 Delegates,
As you already know, I personally have been calling each of you. Of the 139 delegates to our convention I have been fortunate to speak with 97 of you so far. I have learned of your concerns. I have learned what issues are important to you. I have received a lot of good advice. And I have answered a lot of questions.

Recently a few delegates have told me that our “opponent’s staff” have told them that their candidate is far in the lead. One said that the count was 118 confirmed delegates for Tinklenberg and just 21 for Olson. One delegate named a staff member who had told him a few weeks ago that “Olson has dropped out of the race.”

I believe that a member of Congress should feel compelled to speak out when they see things being misrepresented. It was their failure to do so during the lead up to the Iraq war that has brought us to where we are today.

When I have spoken with you I have asked each of you who are you are supporting. My impression is that those of you who are supporting Elwyn have been comfortable telling me that.

With 97 of 139 contacted, here are the results:
Olson 51%
Tinklenberg 32%
Undecided 17%

Please make your own interpretation of the numbers.

I cannot guarantee that you will make me your endorsed candidate at
Bunker Hills on the 26th. But I will guarantee that if you do, we will use
honesty and integrity to defeat Mrs. Bachmann in November, that I will have the
backbone to represent all of your values in Washington, and that together we can
change the world.

Thanks to all of you for 97, and counting, great conversations.

See you on the 26th,

Bob Olson

Muse adds:

While I am all for speaking out about the debacle that has been this Administration and Iraq, to connect that to interpretations of delegate math is reaching far beyond the bounds of reality. Unfortunately, what could have made for a great choice in candidate has turned into an embarrassing example of tilting at windmills. It is time, Mr. Quixote, to come back from your fantasy and join us here in the world of reality.

My interpretation: Bob Olson is experiencing a lot of Minnesota Nice. Surely some support his candidacy, but I cannot fathom Olson having 48 delegates, Tinklenberg 32 delegates with 7 undecided.

My delegate math, compiled by talking to a mix of delegates, party chairs, and seeing the named caucuses where these delegates are to come form, I have Tinklenberg up 69 to 28, with about 40 in undecided ranks.

In my eyes, it's a dire situation for Bob. The race in Bunker Hills will be over in time for Two Putt Tommy and I to play 18, that's for sure. 1 ballot. Maybe 2.

Who knows though, stranger things have happened at endorsing races before. I just highly doubt this many bloggers can be wrong on this one. It's perfectly clear in my eyes.

Tinklenberg raises $127,000 is First Quarter

Elwyn Tinklenberg's FEC report was posted yesterday.

He collected just over $99,000 in individual contributions and almost $28,000 from PAC's. About 20% of his contributions came from PAC's.

For comparison, in first quarter 2006 Tinklenberg hauled in about $39,500 in individual contributions and $23,000 from PAC's. Apples and Oranges, I know, since in 06 Tinklenberg was running against a formidable candidate in Patty Wetterling and the Congressional seat was open.

Honestly, it's not as bad as I had heard. Although with just over $100,000 cash on hand at the end of the quarter, the fundraising pace must pick up. I wonder if he'll start calling in some of the fundraising "big guns"?

Anyone see the Tinklenberg vehicle repair reimbursement on 1/21/08 of $1190.36? I'd like to hear the story behind that...

Were anxiously awaiting the release of Olson's FEC report. 2007, 4th Quarter, Olson had just over $92,000 cash on hand, with $119,000 in loans.

At the close of 07, Bachmann had nearly $800,000 cash on hand.

Checks and Balances: Olson is done

Checks and Balances reported a month ago that the campaign in the 6th was over.

This election cycle has not been a good one for Bob Olson. First of many of you may be asking who in the heck is Bob Olson and what is he running for and there lies the essence of the problem. Olson was a candidate for the U.S. Senate last year until he decided to make the switch and run for the 6th Congressional District against Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) less than a month after that announcement Congressman Jim Ramstad (R-MN3) announced his retirement and Olson who actually lives in the 3rd found himself aced from running for the district he resides in due to his earlier pronouncement.

Since then Nikki Carlson has left as first campaign manager and then fundraiser and Chris Truscott his Communications Director left this week leaving the campaign basically adrift.

Many kept it afloat, including a lot of people Blueman has a lot of respect for. The David Day's, Tom Beckfeld's, Dana Kutcher, and many others who held the campaign together until recently are to be commended for their strong actions to build our party. It was only after a horrific debate in Anoka, when people began to leave the sinking ship, after Olson expressly told those volunteers that he would not do and say certain things.

Surely Olson has hired a new crew. We got the email via the field/fundraising/communications guru. It looks to be that the field campaign side of the house for Olson is dead in the water.

While lots of people still do not like Tinklenberg, Olson has not been able to reach out to delegates in a manner that empowers those voters and creates the loyalty delegates had to Senator Bonoff and to Ashwin Madia.

Blueman will be joining Political Muse at the 6th CD conference for some tag team You Tubing and blogging. Sounds like it will be a pretty fun time!

Fisking the Olson letter

Well, I've fisked my share of Tinklenberg letters over the past 6 months. I'll never forget the Salmon dinner and the fundrasing plea.

We received the latest Olson letter last night. What a difference a month makes.

A month or so ago, they had field, fundraising, and communications coordinators. Looks to me like they have one now, filling all three positions!

In the 6th District we have two candidates vying for the DFL Endorsement. I am supporting Bob Olson because he has the best chance to beat Michele Bachmann. He has the stances that will allow him to take votes away from Mrs. Bachmann, and beat her with those same votes.

What? I think I know what they're trying to say...but damn!

Bob has a strong, dedicated staff and enough money in the bank to give Mrs. Bachmann her ticket home.

I'm anxiously awaiting the FEC reports for Tinklenberg and Olson. I've heard through the grapevine that Tinklenberg's fundraising has been lacking. I'd be willing to bet that Olson trails Tinklenberg for a second consecutive quarter in fundraising, no matter how much of his own money he interjects into his campaign.

The release of FEC reports will answer that question.

As I have stated before, the race is over. The endorsement in the 3rd today was strikingly similar to the race in the 6th in 2006. It had the same feel.

Two weeks from today, I'm guessing Elwyn Tinklenberg will be our endorsed candidate in the 6th, most likely on the first ballot.

The Death of a Campaign

"I brought you into this world and I can take you out of it!"

As a very wild child, I sure this was uttered many times, jokingly of course.

Whether I was tearing up the house on my Big Wheel or tearin up roads as a teenager, I certainly deserved the admonishment I received and am fearful of the day I have kids!

I never imagined the initial phrase would be relevant to any political campaign, much less any political campaign I supported.

As a blogger in the 6th, I have become accustomed to the ever changing staff of Congresswoman Bachmann. For many of us, it's a sign of instability. A sign of weakness in our Congresswoman.

The same thing holds true for Bob Olson.

One staff defection can be expected.

Two defections are typical.

Three defections make me wonder.

Four or more in the span of 6 weeks is a significant problem.

Only those on a Rush Limbaugh vicoden induced high can't see the writing on the wall.

The free ride stops today.

The past 6 months we've spent some considerable time exposing Elwyn Tinklenberg. Agree or disagree, his past as a lobbyist and at MnDOT will be used against him in the general election. If Tinklenberg sufficiently answers these questions, amongst others, he will better position himself in the general election.

Olson on the other hand, has really not had to answer a lot of questions and virtually no tough ones.

His experience as a tax attorney and banker should resonate well with moderate voters in the 6th. Unfortunately, Olson has failed to really deliver a solid message to delegates and voters alike, a message grounded in the real problems across the 6th: Healthcare, the Economy/Mortgage crisis, Iraq, and Education.

It's easy to blame staff for these mistakes, and surely some mistakes have been made by paid and unpaid staffers.

However, staff cannot be blamed for a candidates failure to deliver a speech on message.

The buck stops...over there.

As a former candidate, I know the importance of the stump speech. My first couple of stump speeches, well, sucked. They didn't suck because of who wrote them, they sucked because I failed to deliver them properly.

After two weeks or so, we got the speeches down, 2, 5 and 10 minute speeches for different occasions, all on message, just with different lengths.

9 months into a Congressional race, follwing a US Senate race, this is still a major liability for the Olson campaign. It was clear at the Wright County Breakfast of Champions, an event where three local House candidates, two Congressional candidates, and a State Senator spoke, that Olson delivered the worst speech of the 6.

I've criticized Elwyn Tinklenberg for this before and I'll criticize Bob Olson for it now.

You cannot run on holding Congresswoman Bachmann acountable when you will not allow yourself to be held accountable. It's a recipe for failure.

The Startribune and St Cloud Times will not run the obituary, but like a carcass on the side of the road, the Olson campaign is dead.

Many have kindly tried to take a shovel and simply move the carcass off the road without anyone noticing.

But as the stench of the rotting carcas grows stronger, a quiet and graceful exit is no longer an option.

Much my my chagrin, Elwyn Tinklenberg is our candidate in the 6th.

The time has come to unite around one candidate to defeat Michele Bachmann in the fall.

Delegate counts in the 6th

Eric Z posed the question for me here yesterday.

Have you, perhaps, pulled the Olson photo prematurely?

The short answer is no.

T.W. Budig has a story up about the endorsing conventions in the 6th.

Schumacher views the endorsement contest between Tinklenberg and Olson as close to being decided. “I don’t think it’s (the race) open,” said Schumacher.

Only two more local DFL conventions take place this weekend, she explained.

Her delegate count suggests Tinklenberg is on the threshold of endorsement, Schumacher explained. “I think Tinklenberg is very close to the required 60 percent,” she said.

“That’s certainly not to say anything bad about Mr. Olson — it’s wonderful to have two good candidates,” said Schumacher. “But my sense is that it will go Tinklenberg — but I could be wrong,” she said.

For his part, Olson argues the contest is very much alive. Delegate responses have been encouraging, he insisted.

Some soothsayers have him trailing Tinklenberg, Olson acknowledged. “Yeah, and it’s a little confusing because everybody else who isn’t talking to the delegates, they’re saying ‘We’re behind,’” he said. “I’m the one talking to these people. And it’s very positive,” said Olson.

But the Tinklenberg campaign feels good about the odds of endorsement.

I would most likely be one of the soothsayers...

My running delegate count, obtained by speaking to a mix of delegates and others across the Senate Districts and County Units, has Tinklenberg leading in delegates 65-25.

While a good deal of uncommitted delegates remain, the momentum clearly leads me to the conclusion that this will be a first ballot endorsement for Tinklenberg.

My opinion, based on my own experiences running for the State Senate, is that Olson is experiencing "Minnesota Nice" with the delegates. That's my gut feeling.

As to Eric's question about taking down the photo of Olson and slowing my coverage of the race in the 6th...

It has nothing to do with the fact that Olson is losing the delegate race. It has more to do with the inside politics of the race, and we'll leave it at that.

Olson's lit piece on Tinklenberg

The parents had some interesting mail when I came home this weekend...

Olson's piece on Tinklenberg's evolving positions.