One thing is consistent in both polls.
Dean Barkley is surging.
In the KSTP poll, Barkley is now only 14 points behind Franken.
In the Startribune poll, Barkley is now only 15 points behind the incumbent Coleman.
Barkley hurting Coleman
The poll shows that Barkley is drawing more votes from Coleman than Franken, although Franken would still be ahead of Coleman even if Barkley wasn’t in the race.
More Barkley supporters, 49 percent, said they leaned toward Coleman than Franken, who drew support from 33 percent of them. In a head-to-head match without Barkley, Franken topped Coleman by 49 percent to 42 percent.
The poll detected a significant increase in Minnesotans who label themselves as Democrats. Forty-two percent of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 27 percent who said they were independents, and 26 percent who said they were Republicans.
According to the poll, Coleman’s support has slid among men and those in upper- and lower-income brackets. Last month, Coleman led Franken among men, 46 to 36 percent; in the recent poll Franken is ahead, 45 to 34 percent.
Coleman continues to get strong support from white evangelicals, but white Catholics are about evenly split between the two leading candidates. Both Coleman and Franken are struggling equally to keep their respective bases from drifting to the Barkley camp; each has the support of 78 percent of their party members, while 12 percent of Democrats and Republicans alike support Barkley.
And Barkley has cut into Coleman’s former lead among independents, leaving them divided almost evenly among Coleman (34 percent), Barkley (33 percent) and Franken (29 percent).David Roeser, 65, a retired General Mills mechanic who lives in Minneapolis, said he was for Barkley in part because of all “the crap” in the TV ads.
“This has really alienated me from both [Coleman and Franken]. I’ve read some of Franken’s satire — I’m not a big fan of the stuff — and I’ve watched Coleman in Congress a bit,” he said. “But these ads have turned me totally away. Barkley seems like more my kind of person.”
All of this is good news for Barkley.
The debate on Sunday will be very interesting. Will Franken and Coleman go after Barkley in a last ditch effort to sway voters back?
We've heard the rumors of the DSCC possibly going after Barkley. Will the NRSC follow suit?
6 comments:
I would strongly doubt either the DSCC or NRSC will attack Barkley. Everything minus the KSTP poll in the last month has shown that Barkley is pulling from Coleman. It's the Ron Paul-ite libertarian anti-Washington vote that Barkley's getting... I thought Dave Mindeman had a good analysis on this.
I can tell you that our support is much wider than just the Ron Paul folks.
Dean isn’t pulling from Coleman or Franken supporters. These folks were never supporters; they just had nowhere else to go until now.
The fact that a question like: “how would you vote if your choice was only Coleman or Franken, tells us nothing without the follow up questions: “how would you vote if you choice was Barkley and Franken or Barkley and Coleman?
Barkley’s support is not just protest votes. They are voting for something the other two candidates are not offering.
Franken is seen as the liberals answer to Rush Limbaugh. And neither Rush or Al will do much to change the toxic atmosphere in Washington.
Coleman is the poster boy for what a RINO is and spends money faster than Paris Hilton in a shoe store.
Dean proposes real ideas like freezing the federal budget at its current level for 4 years, cutting defense spending on things like star wars, overseas bases and Iraq. Getting out of Iraq much sooner than either Al or Norm is willing to talk about.
We added a trillion dollars to the budget deficit this week and neither Al nor Norm has the courage to name a single campaign promise that needs to be changed.
Barkley’s message is that we are spending too much and need to cut back. Franken thinks we are spending too little and need to spend more. Coleman says everything is fine and we should continue doing what we are doing.
I distrust a campaign based on "spend less" without saying how healthcare repair, infrastructure needs, social security soundness, and other goals can be met.
If private credit tightens, what is the role of government?
You Barkley people should focus on whether he has answers beyond spending less and quickly leaving Iraq.
What's he say of a nuclear Iran, Pakistan as a Islamist safe haven, and Israeli-Palestinian issues?
Non-issues to him? Simply be less interventionist, and that would lessen pressures?
Who would he vote for in Senate organizing, should he win, and should he hold a deciding seat?
If he, Lieberman, and another Independent were essential to Committee leadership assignments, would he want to represent and foster the first Congress in memory where no single party headed all Senate committees?
That would be interesting. Any thoughts?
Aaron, Taxpaying Lib, and Blue Man -
The link Aaron gives is quite interesting for what it says, but it fails to make one conclusion.
The Barkley impact, with no funding against millions for each major party candidate means the impact is uncertain depending on how nastier the Franken and Coleman mailings and TV spots become; and how effective that is in poisoning support for whichever candidate any particular ad aims to discredit.
In effect, Barkley prospers the more each other campaign is effective [with each going negative more than positive] and if one is decisively more effective Barkley will take more of a share from the other.
All that means polls now, never mind the margin of error and the percentages all over the place for Barkley in present polling, don't matter. Because the toll of ramped up negative ads will not fully weigh in until about the end of October polls then are all that will matter - and there's another uncertainty, the presidential race might give us an October surprise that factors into the Senate contest also.
If Barkley does not trend upward around end of October, spending nothing his way but by the other two lessening each other's image, it would probably surprise everyone. Can he trend up to even with the other two, however, without the other two changing strategy is the question.
If the Barkley numbers get quite substantial, this is my question: Does any BMRD reader see the other two then forced to adjust their message, not by jumping Barkley too as Blueman speculates, but by having to go positive on their candidate and soften the attack mode?
Any ideas?
Honestly, I think the damage has been done. Regardless if Franken and Coleman stop the negative BS, the NRSC, DSCC, and other 527's will not stop, and most voters don't see a difference in which surrogate is attacking.
How can we continue down the same road we have been on for quite some time. The enormity of the deficit is astonishing. Franken looks to add to that burden with socialized medicine. Coleman is far from fiscally conservative.
And Eric, I know how concerned you are about the "revolving door" in government. Have you seen where Franken is getting his campaign money? How on earth will Franken halt the revolving door?
I trust Barkley. I can't trust Coleman or Franken.
I suggest (I know you will) listen to the five debate. All of your questions should be answered.
You could also call him and ask him directly. His # is on the web site. www.senatorbarkley.com
I would respond by saying that nothing really changes until we address the $11,000,000,000,000 debt.
Franken and Coleman have answered your health care question by basically saying little. Norm thinks nothing should be done ($600,000 in drug company Pacs donations)
Al says it should be up to the states. ($250,000 in health care pac not including unions)
Barkley wants to open up medicare to everyone and compete with private insurance and allow medicare to negotiate bulk drug prices.
Iran, Pakistan and those issues are about keeping Nuke out of terrorist hands. Barkley wants a more vigorous dedication to the Nunn -Lugar bill.
Barkley is at 20% with a 50% name recognition. He’s way ahead of where Jessie was.
This is not a hollow single issue campaign. Barkley has way more experience than Al and is much better than Norm on all the issues you listed.
If Al finishes 3rd will you hear the IP whining about how Al caused Barkley the election? No.
A vote isn’t something you steal, it’s something you earn. And Norm or Al have not earned a majority of votes.
They have spent $30,000,000 so far. What a waste.
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