Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Tinklenberg v. Reed: More CD 6 fodder

To quote Anchorman Ron Burgundy:
"Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast!"
About a week ago, we put out our vibe that Tinklenberg was definitely going to run in 2010.

And we all heard the news that Marueen Reed is challenging Bachmann as well.

Two days ago, we had no candidates...officially. Now we have two.

Yep, we were right. Elwyn's $250,000 gift to the DCCC will garner their support for his 2010 run.

My gut feeling? Tinklenberg has labor in his back pocket and a $250,000 IOU from the DCCC. There is no way Tinklenberg does not get the DFL endorsement in 2010, for another run at Michele Bachmann. Honestly, that would be a lot for Reed to overcome, not impossible though.

I'll try to keep an open mind for now. I'd like to see how Reed's initial fundraising goes, see how she performs in front of potential delegates and others.

Another big problem for Democrats out in "our parts"?

The Ron Paul Revolution is alive and well.

We've seen the stories of Bachmann cuddling up to Ron Paul for weekly economic studies. But even more interesting is that the new CD 6 GOP Chair is a big Ron Paul guy. Wright County was a big Ron Paul area, as was Meeker and McLeod Counties in the 7th.

So here's an idea...perhaps even a bold one.

So instead of posting photoshopped pictures and edited You Tube videos putting orgy and government wads together, why don't we actually work in a grassroots effort to organize our communities.

Seriously, I'm I the only one who looked at the Bachmann tax day video and noticed that orgy/government wad portion of said video was spliced together like a 3 year old playing Operation?

Mocking Michele Bachmann gets us nowhere.

Running an "anyone but Bachmann campaign" gets us nowhere.

Attacking the "soccer mom" gets us nowhere.

It only gets us 2 more years of Bachmann.

Bachmann will continue to do damage to herself in the mainstream media.

While we should ensure that her insane comments are disseminated, we have no need to doctor them to make them even more "juicy". She does that well enough.

We should talk about Bachmann's voting record and how her values are not congruent with her rhetoric.

Last but not least, leadership needs to get off its ass. I caught this wonderful quote earlier in the week.
The district is the most Republican in the state and will be an extremely difficult race for any Democrat. But Schumaker believes Tinklenberg would have won in 2008 if not for the presence of another (non-endorsed) IP candidate on the ballot, Bob Anderson, who garnered 10 percent of the vote. “For whatever reason the information was not put out there that El Tinklenberg was endorsed by both parties,” she says.
"For whatever reason..."

Really? WTF?

Tinklenberg was endorsed by the IP on June 22, 2009. You mean to tell me that neither Tinklenberg nor the 6th CD DFL took the time over the remaining 4 1/2 months from the IP endorsement to stress the endorsement.

"For whatever reason...?"

Maybe this is a big maybe...they hadn't spent the waning weeks of the campaign still introducing Tinklenberg to voters, they would have known he was endorsed by BOTH the DFL and the IP.

Going back through the Blueman history of Tinklenberg campaign ads, none of the ads I found had any mention of Tinklenberg's cross endorsement of the DFL and IP.

So, stop blaming the IP for Tinklenberg losing in 2008.

We lost because we gambled and lost. We ran shitty campaigns in Wright and Sherburne Counties and could not capitalize on the cash cow caused by the pandemic known as the Bachmann2008 virus.


lavndrblue said...

Yep, you're right the campaign was terrible. I spoke with El last evening at a senate district fundraiser and he said he is interviewing an entirely new staff, many coming out of the Obama campaign and he said he has 'national backing' which in my book means Washington. See what $250,000 gets you?

My understanding is that both candidates will vie for the IP and DFL endorsement. It remains to be seen if both candidates will abide by said endorsements if they lose. By the way Aubrey Immelman is in the race as well according to his posts on Dump Bachmann. I'm not sure about Anderson, but he may run again as well.

cursedthing said...

"Tinklenberg has labor in his back pocket "

Are you KIDDING ME???? With the piss poor campaign he ran? He DOES NOT have Labor in his back pocket.

taxpaying liberal said...

Of course he will have labors support. It is also apparent that he has Democratic leadership support. Just look at Mnpublius today. Not a peep out of them about Reeds entrance into the race. This speaks volumes because Reed should be the number one campaign story today.

I opposed El last election in the endorsement race and helped the candidate who ran against him. I was wrong. The Dems picked the right guy.

El was hurt by some bad choices and bad breaks and getting into the race so late left him with few qualified options for campaign staff in some critical areas. He suffered from fund raising problems and every time I hear that El ran a poor race I always ask; how much did you give? It should be noted that El got more votes in cd6 than Obama.

And some people whose political opinion I highly respect tell me that El has a very good and realistic view about mistakes made and what is required to win this race.

Money is not going to be a problem for El this time. Staff is not going to be a problem for El this time.

And I believe that Reed will run a pretty good endorsement battle which should make the winning candidate much stronger.

Lighten up everybody. This is good news.

Political Muse said...

Silence from both the voice of the DFL and from the Dump Bachmann crowd. Interesting...

The sage advice of Blue Man and Taxpaying Liberal should be taken seriously as they live in the very heart of the district. Outsiders simply do not understand the district!

lavndrblue said...

About Reed entering the race has been on WCCO radio, MNIndy, and Huffington Post. All had announcements of Reed's run. If Reed is right on policy, we as activists can make her candidacy happen............

DB said...

I love your posts BLue man but let me tell you as someone who has some understanding the situation in the ground, Tinklenberg has neither Unions or the DCCC sewn a matter of fact the $250,000 gift is a message of desperation not kindness. Believe me, the DCCC will go with whatever candidate is the most viable regardless of past history.

Blue man said...

A few things real quick.

A. My labor sources tell me Elwyn is a shoe-in. Unless someone overthrows the guys with the same last name as the long time Oldsmobile establishment, that probably won't change much.

He's been strongly supported by labor for years, he's a known commodity to them.

That's what I hear and I trust my labor source.

B. Reed did get some good press, both traditional and non-traditional. I just hope that her campaign is poised to jump on that momentum. I'd like to see a Press Conference. I recall El having a series of house parties across the 6th when he announced, plus he did events across the district too.

C. TPL is right, I've heard the same things about El being genuine, open and honest about the mistakes of 2008. I wonder what he will do to ensure that those mistakes are not made again and what steps he'll take to ensure that when a problem arises, he and his campaign and take action.

I too was wrong on Elwyn. He was the best candidate in 2008.

DB said...

Well the labor folks I have heard from would not share your sentiment. In addition I can tell you that despite the money he threw at the DCCC they are not on board with El. He does not have a national backing of the party at this point.
However I love this lively debate!! I look forward to more of your posts!
While he may have been the best candidate in 2008...based on the way he ran his campaign that is not saying much.

Blue man said...

DB, we should get our labor folks together to duke it out!!

Not sure what else to think about Tink droppin $250k on the DCCC. Your story does not surprise me at all. I'd read in a few places that Tink had a lot of big support out in DC. But then again, supposedly he wasn't going to have his daughter run his campaign either.

I find it pretty interesting that El was as aggressive in getting into this race on the heels of Reed's announcement.

Cathy said...

It looks like labor is split.....that's a good thing. As far as El having national backing, my sources say he does.

taxpaying liberal said...

There is some confusion about what DCCC “backing”is.

At this point the DCCC doesn’t back anyone anywhere who is not an incumbent.

But I’d bet my last paycheck that they are talking to El. And (I’m just guessing or making an opinion here) that they are laying out some goals and conditions for him.

They pretty much will do the same thing for Reed but I’ll bet they have had more conversations with El due to a number of reasons.

The DCCC like the State DFL will be required to stay “neutral” until after the endorsement and I can tell you from past experience that they do that pretty well.

They have several criteria for judging how much commitment they are willing to give but be far the number one is how much money you have raised.

Labor is a different matter.

There is no doubt that El has a long and lasting relationship with labor that extends beyond the local area.

You can say a lot of different things about the Labor leadership but one thing is for certain; they are a pretty savvy bunch and they don’t throw their friends under the bus.

They work hard for their people and that is where their first priority lies. They have a known commodity in El. If Reed wants their backing then she is going to have to publicly commit to some things the EFCA.

Unless you’re a rock star like Patty you simply can’t win the DFL endorsement in the 6th without labor. And there is no chance that they won’t endorse. Fair or not, that hill is taller for Reed.

The biggest news to look for next week when El declares is who his campaign manager is. It’s the signal he has to send to the people who will be choosing the next endorsed candidate.

It’s critical for El. Even more so than for Reed because his choice for campaign manager will declare whether he has heard the voices of those who are worried about how hard and smart he is going to campaign.

If he picks a well known top of the line person he could close out this race pretty quickly. This is going to be one of the biggest races in the country and there will be a lot of very good people wanting that job. That’s where El connections come in. I bet he has a list of very qualified people provided to him by various congress people and the DCCC and even labor.

We have two candidates who are vying for the middle and self declared Blue dogs. Both are smart, articulate, seasoned and well suited to run against Bachman.

The person who picks the best campaign staff and raises the most money should win.

eric zaetsch said...

TPL - You mean no more cutting checks out of campaign funds for the step-daughter? Bringing in an Oberstar person earlier than last cycle?

Whoever leads the cheerleaders, it's still tired Elwyn on the playing field, unless this mystery "other person" Schumacher speaks of is - what's needed - a winner.

Remember how Klobuchar drew in the district. There's a lesson there.

A TC candidacy with a bit of Emily's List help - who's to say.

lavndrblue said...

Eric, I agree!!!

eric zaetsch said...

lavndrblue -

Two sides to the coin. Hunter/Garcia wrote:

"Truckin - like the doodah man
once told me you got to play your hand
sometime - the cards ain't worth a dime
if you don't lay em down"

The Mind That Bird people had to enter the Derby before winning it, yes/no?

John said...

Blue Man,

When you say "We ran shitty campaigns in Wright and Sherburne Counties"

Are you talking about the 10,000 doors that were knocked on by DFL volunteers in the last four days of the election alone? Or the close to 400 DFL volunteers that came into the Wright County GOTV action center during those four days?

I'm just curious.

taxpaying liberal said...

The effort you talk about was tremendous. The results were this.
Bob Anderson 11.6%
Tinklenberg -37.57%

Now about 64,000 people voted in Wright County and about 45,000 in Sherburne with similar results.
On a local level Haws Received 64.29%, Gail Jackson 42.41%, Lisa Fobbe 44.57%, and Jim Bakula did an outstanding job earning 47.35%.

The questions that some of us have is not about the effort or dedication that the many volunteers like yourself put in, but rather were those resources’ used to the best advantage.

For example if the folks calling on behalf of Bakula were also including Franken and Obama that may have hurt Bakula who only lost by 1200 votes. This isn’t an attempt to put down Franken or Obama just a political reality.

In these counties there was a 7 point drop off of McCain voters to Bachmann and a 3t point drop off of Obama voters to Tinklenberg.

Those votes went to Anderson who was the only person in the race even more nuts than Bachmann.

I know this is blasphemy to say it, but the local leadership should have realized how toxic some of our up ticket candidates were and distanced the local candidates like Tink and Bakula from them. I doubt that the up-ticket guys would have been hurt because let’s face it they couldn’t have done much worse.

If we look at the east side of the district, they decided a long time ago that they were going to take matters into their own hands. The result is that they have 2 st. reps and a state senator and are much more reliable in getting out Democratic votes for local Dems including Tink.

You have Lori and Sue and a lot of really good people there. This next election is going to be a local election. If we focus on the small stuff the big stuff will get easier.

taxpaying liberal said...

I hope you will forgive me for making just one more point.

Much of the real leadership in Wright County is Labor. Labor had a guy named Jason who you just can’t say enough good things about. The school districts in many Wright county areas have Jason and the volunteers he recruited and the phone banks he organized, to thank for the funding and bonding issues he got passed.

So if Wright County can get tax increases passed and locals like Haws and Bakula can win or score big then we should listen to Haws and Bakula and Jason and see how they did it.

And thanks for working the phone banks.

lloydletta said...

Muse, I don't understand the attacks on Dump Bachmann. While Ken Avidor and I don't live in the district, most of the bloggers on DB do. Karl Bremer, whose writings we publish lives in Stillwater. DB contributor Bill Prendergast also lives in Stillwater. Until recently you were a contributor on DB. Our commenters mostly live in the 6th district, and I regularly get tips from people in the 6th District.

Whoever runs in the general, will have to be successful in reaching out to local Chambers of Commerce. While Bachmann will get the national chamber of commerce endorsement, it spoke volumes that the St Cloud Chamber withheld endorsement. This was because Bachmann opposed the Northstar corridor.

Whoever runs, also can't be afraid to go on conservative talk radio - or call into the shows. If you are skilled at calling in, you can get your message out cheaply.

While Michele Bachmann is the "8000 pound gorilla of the Republican party" as a prominent GOP activist told me, there are also many in the party who privately are alienated by Bachmann, but will not speak up publicly about her out of fear of alienating her base. However it speaks volumes that one of the party chair candidates, Dave Thompson said that Bachmann's swine flu statements are "indefensible." That should be in an ad.

Bachmann can be effective for other democratic campaigns in the district. Everytime Bachmann makes a gaffe, local candidates should be forced to comment on said gaffe.

eric zaetsch said...

Franken and Obama were hurt down ticket, by Tinklenberg/Oberstar and all that.

And Franken was savaged by DFL turncoats who went to Barkley and undermined Franken to where his victory now awaits court challenge.

Get it right.

Be truthful.

The switch to Barkley and Tink, the IP insiders and cabal, hurt.

And Blue Man, you know who that was, doing that, vigorously.

End of story.

John said...

Taxpaying Liberal,

1. I know the Bakula's well, and think the world of them. There is nothing that would have made me happier than to see Jim elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives. He would have been (hopefully still will be) an outstanding legislator.

That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that he was helped by upticket candidates, not hurt. There were three campaign staff stationed in Wright County (Which to my knowledge it was the first time Wright had any) paid for by the Franken and the Obama campaigns. Were some people turned off to him because upticket candidates were talked about as well? Maybe. But there is no way the scope of his campaign could have been as big without the upticket candidates.

2. A couple of the reasons you see success on the east side of the district are:
a) There is a better DPI there (Democratic Performance Index).
b) The local DFL units have more money and resources.

Not to mention that every other SH candidate in the sixth (except Swails) was IDed with the uptickets just like Bakula.

3. I know Jason, and you are right about him. The Wright County Labor Council has done, and continues to do great work.

4. When Blueman says: "We ran shitty campaigns in Wright and Sherburne Counties" and, " why don't we actually work in a grassroots effort to organize our communities." It implies that it was at the grassroots level that the campaign failed. I can tell you that was not the case. The Wright County GOTV action center had close to 700% of the volunteer goal set by the state DFL, and outperformed any other action center (with the exception of St. Cloud). Furthermore, in my experience, telling people that their work was "shitty" is not a way to get them to stay involved and build a "grassroots" effort.

One last item to leave you with:

More voters were talked to about Jim Bakula in 19A than were talked to in any other SH district in the sixth about any other SH candidate.

taxpaying liberal said...

Steve Andrews knocked on 9000 doors in 16b.

That not Steves team, That's Steve alone.

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